The Fitto effect — and why all the political groups need each other

Follow the movers, shakers, and deal-makers in a post-election Europe.
By MAX GRIERA
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Hello all! As we await Ursula von der Leyen’s big reveal, there’s a growing polarization among the European Parliament’s political families ahead of the hearings for commissioner nominees.
The paradox? They might all be screaming at each other now but they all need each other to ensure the Commission starts work as soon as possible, especially given the Parliament’s complex voting process for approving nominees.
As Brussels starts packing to head to next week’s Strasbourg plenary session, at which von der Leyen is expected (we hope!) to announce the College, here’s where we are at.
RUMOR FATIGUE: Talking to sources and colleagues, I am getting a sense that the bubble is tired of waiting for and speculating about the next college, especially given repeated delays. The latest: Instead of mid-October, the hearings are now expected on November 4 to 12 and it remains a mystery whether Slovenia will be able to confirm its nominee before Tuesday, which could cause further delays to von der Leyen’s announcement. Read more about it in this morning’s Brussels Playbook.
As delays pile up, so do political demands: Political groups are using the delays to air out their grievances with the still-under-construction commissioner roster and to set down their demands.
FITTO SETS THE TONE: But no issue has divided the EU’s political families as much as Giorgia Meloni’s pick to be Italy’s commissioner, Raffaele Fitto, as rumors swirl that he could get an executive vice-presidency with major powers.
EVP is a no-go. The Socialists and Democrats (S&D), liberal Renew Europe, the Greens, and The Left have voiced their fury at the idea of such a big job going to Fitto. The S&D went as far as to threaten to withdraw support from von der Leyen’s college.
Weber jumps back: The center-right European People’s Party’s (EPP) chief Manfred Weber, however, came to Fitto’s defense in Corriere della Sera, saying that the Italian “is a friend” and that “for the EPP it is clear [that] Italy has to be well represented in the next European Commission.”
Patriots ready to back Meloni: Despite Fitto (who hails from the European Conservatives and Reformists group) being considered a moderate within the hard-right camp, parts of another group — the far-right Patriots for Europe — seem ready to protect him at all costs. “No matter who Meloni proposes, he can count on the support of Vox,” Spanish MEP Jorge Buxadé told me, adding: “We do not fail our friends … We will listen carefully to Fitto’s appearance and we have no doubt that he will be a different voice defending common sense in the fanatic madness installed in Brussels.”
ECR stays quiet: Despite all this buzz, ECR has adopted a policy of not commenting, in what seems a strategy to avoid a PR faux pas ahead of a tricky hearing for their only representative in the new Commission.
WALKING ON THIN ICE: Political groups with commissioners who might have a tough time in the hearings — EPP, S&D, Renew, and ECR — know that they need to be careful with other political families’ nominees to minimize retaliation against their own candidates.
Prime exhibit: Despite S&D publicly and loudly warning on Tuesday that they are considering withdrawing their support for von der Leyen’s Commission if Fitto gets an EVP role, an S&D source later acknowledged that “we don’t want to speak about red lines [for Fitto].” “Fitto has to demonstrate to the Parliament if he is pro-European or not, if he defends European values, and after that we will see the [whole] package,” the person added.
Greens have views too: Though not getting a commissioner, the Greens are trying hard to be part of the game. After getting modest concessions in von der Leyen’s political guidelines in exchange for their support in July, “we aim for a team that secures [the Green Deal] in a horizontal way in the college. We want the mission letters and the portfolios to be as green as possible,” Terry Reintke, co-chair of the Greens group, told POLITICO.
No strings attached: The Left, Patriots, and Sovereignists (ESN) also have no commissioners and should be expected to be tough on them all.
Example: “It is undemocratic that [Thierry] Breton is the French candidate again, even though [French President Emmanuel] Macron does not have a [parliamentary] majority anymore,” Martin Schirdewan, co-chair of The Left, told me. It seems unlikely that the EPP and S&D would go against Breton, to avoid retaliation from Renew (Breton’s political family).
The high-bar vetting process: After the commissioner nominees get the nod from the Parliament’s conflict of interest screening team, answer the written questions sent by their respective committees, and go through the in-person grilling sessions, one representative from each political group will cast their vote (each vote is weighted to represent their groups’ size in the committee) on whether to approve the candidate. To be approved, you need at least a two-thirds majority.
Co-dependency. As you can see in this chart by our Hanne Cokelaere, alienating the ECR — and its candidate, Fitto — would put that two-thirds majority in jeopardy for other groups. At the same time, ignoring the concerns about Fitto from the S&D, Renew and Greens could see ECR and EPP candidates lose support.
Vote share per Parliament committee that MEPs from the S&D, Greens, Renew and EPP could secure with, and without, the ECR. Subcommittees are marked with an asterisk.
Lowering the bar. If a nominee is not approved, the committee sends them extra written questions or schedules another hearing, after which the groups’ representatives vote again. If they fail to get enough support at this stage, all individual committee members will vote in a secret ballot. This time, the candidate just needs a simple majority.
Still, there’s no way around it. Even with a simple majority vote, the left- and right-wing blocs forming around whether Fitto should get a top job will need each other at some stage, as you can see in Hanne’s next chart.
Vote share per Parliament committee if split along ideological lines, with the S&D, Renew, Greens and potentially The Left on one side, and the EPP, ECR and potentially the Patriots on the other.
MEPs know that, if there is a race to the bottom, everyone’s commissioners, especially the weaker ones, could be damaged.
Some want to keep their heads low, and even insinuate that all current commissioner nominees should be approved as soon as possible to avoid further delays to the new Commission’s kickoff. “It’s no time for games, it’s time to deliver,” a senior EPP MEP told me.
Várhelyi should pass for the sake of timing: The same MEP said that even Hungary’s Oliver Várhelyi, widely disliked among lawmakers, should be approved: “If I was a Socialist, I would keep Várhelyi. If you ‘kill’ him, Orbán will send someone stronger.” The Socialists seem to be wary too: “Várhelyi is not great, but we don’t want to start the process saying we will ‘kill’ someone, we cannot start like this,” an S&D figure said.
Capitals freaking out: “We should avoid further delays, as all policy matters seem now to be in a state of paralysis. Problems and challenges don’t wait,” one senior EU diplomat told Barbara Moens, echoing many others’ concerns about a delay at a time of war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and with the U.S. election looming. “We also need to debate the single market and competitiveness. In five years, no one will care about who will be which commissioner if the European economy goes down the drain.”
LATEST ON COMMISSION SHAPE: Von der Leyen asked EU member countries to send both a male and a female candidate for her team of 26 commissioners. Their response? A whole lot of “middle fingers,” a European official told us. More here.
Slovenian switcheroo: That said, Slovenia confirmed a woman, former ambassador Marta Kos, as its next European commissioner nominee after its first pick, Tomaž Vesel, dropped out of the running. Earlier, Romania also nixed its original candidate to put forward a woman, after von der Leyen’s urging.
Gaze into our crystal ball: While we all wait for von der Leyen to dole out key portfolios, we did some educated guesswork about who will get what. See if you agree with our choices here.
Czech it out: Czech Industry and Trade Minister Jozef Síkela is steadily becoming the favorite to be trade commissioner, edging out Dutchman Wopke Hoekstra, Camille Gijs and Koen Verhelst report.
Commissioner threats: A man was arrested on suspicion of posting a threatening letter and a bag of drugs to the home of Malta’s European commissioner Helena Dalli.
Current excitement level: Ursula, please give us the list on Tuesday and end our suffering! Do reach out to me for a coffee or a walk if you are going to Strasbourg too 🙂
Last word: “We don’t need a second Timmermans this term,” a senior MEP told me, as the EPP tries to limit the powers of Socialist commissioner heavyweight Teresa Ribera, a green hawk, who is expected to get a strong portfolio on industry and competitiveness. Read more on that here.
Thanks to: Seb Starcevic, Paul Dallison, Hanne Cokelaere, Barbara Moens and Sasha Schroeder.
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